The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its 2026 Market Outlook, painting a picture of a housing market shaped by improved buyer choice, affordability pressures, and cautious consumer sentiment across the Greater Toronto Area.
Prices: A Five-Year Low
As of January 2026, the GTA housing market has cooled significantly. The average selling price of a home in Toronto decreased by 8.1% year-over-year to $935,200 in January — with both average and benchmark prices sitting at five-year lows. This correction has brought improved affordability for buyers who were priced out during the 2021-2022 boom.
Sales Activity: Down But Not Out
There were 3,082 home sales reported in January 2026, down 19.3% compared to January 2025. Elevated supply levels are expected to keep price growth in check through 2026, while overall activity is forecast to remain within a similar range compared to the last three years.
Supply Dynamics
Total housing starts are projected to decline in 2026, primarily due to weakness in the condominium segment. Developers have delayed or cancelled projects because presale activity has been insufficient to support new construction. However, purpose-built rental construction remains the strongest segment, supported by government financing programs and municipal incentives.
National Context
Nationally, the aggregate price of a home in Canada is expected to increase a modest 1.0% year-over-year to $823,016 by Q4 2026. Single-family detached properties are expected to increase 2.0%, while condominiums are expected to decrease 2.5%.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, 2026 presents one of the best windows in years. Prices are down, inventory is up, and interest rates have stabilized. Negotiating power is strong, especially in the condo market.
For sellers, pricing competitively is essential. Overpriced listings are sitting on the market, while well-priced properties in desirable areas continue to attract multiple offers.
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