The GTA condominium market in 2026 is experiencing its most significant correction since the 2008-2009 downturn. For buyers who have been waiting for an entry point, the conditions have rarely been more favourable.
The Numbers Tell the Story
National forecasts project condominiums to decrease 2.5% in value through 2026, while single-family detached homes are expected to increase by 2.0%. In the GTA specifically, the divergence is even more pronounced — condo prices are at five-year lows, with significant inventory and extended days on market.
Why the Condo Market Is Correcting
- Oversupply: A wave of completions from projects launched during the 2020-2021 boom is hitting the market
- Investor retreat: Higher interest rates have squeezed investor cash flows, with many selling their units
- Presale weakness: Developers have delayed or cancelled projects because presale activity is insufficient
- Reduced immigration: Changes to immigration targets have moderated demand from newcomers
- Work-from-home shift: Sustained remote work has increased demand for larger homes and reduced appeal of small condos
The Opportunity for Buyers
This correction has created a genuine buyer's market in the condo segment:
- More inventory to choose from than at any point in the last 5+ years
- Sellers and developers are negotiating on price, closing cost credits, and upgrades
- Assignment sales at below-original-purchase-price are increasingly common
- Purpose-built rental construction is shifting supply mix, reducing future condo competition
What to Watch For
While prices are attractive, buyers should exercise due diligence. Check the building's reserve fund, review condo fees carefully, and be cautious of buildings with high investor-to-owner ratios. Focus on well-managed buildings in desirable locations with strong rental demand as a safety net.
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