CMHC's 2026 Outlook: Cautious but Not Pessimistic
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's latest Housing Market Outlook paints a complex picture for 2026:
National Forecast
- GDP growth: 0.7% — one of the weakest years outside a recession
- Home sales: 489,000 (up from 470,000 in 2025)
- Average price: $698,000 (up from $680,000 in 2025)
- Housing starts: 247,000 (DOWN from 259,000 in 2025)
Ontario-Specific
Ontario is the only province where CMHC expects price declines in 2026, driven by high condo completions flooding the market and weaker demand. The MLS HPI Composite benchmark is already down 7.9% year-over-year as of February.
The Counter-Argument: Pent-Up Demand
TRREB estimates 100,000+ pent-up buyers are waiting on the sidelines. When conditions stabilize — and with the HST removal and rate holds providing clarity — these buyers could re-enter quickly, absorbing the excess inventory.
Our Take
Trying to time the market perfectly is nearly impossible. What we do know:
- The HST removal saves up to $130,000 on new homes — a guaranteed, time-limited savings
- Interest rates at 2.25% are the lowest since 2022
- Development charge cuts reduce new home costs further
- If you find the right property at the right price, the current incentives make 2026 objectively better than 2024–2025
The question isn't "buy or wait" — it's "does this property work for my life and budget?" If the answer is yes, the current policy environment is favourable.
Sources: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, TRREB Market Watch, Global News. This is not investment advice.